With horse betting, or any kind of betting, anything other than flat betting is in fact a kind of progression . . . but the subject in this article is (as it should be) a bit controversial: Raising bets after losses.

“Gamblers Ruin” is a term (not quite as scary as it sounds) used to denote a loss of betting bankroll. Though that is something that should be avoided at all cost – it really isn’t actually the “ruin” of the horse bettor – but it will put him out of the game until a new betting bankroll has been scraped together.

The surest way to “Gamblers Ruin” is the infamous “Martingale” method of doubling up after each loss. A gambler sticking to one of the even money bets in – say Roulette – will only be operating at about a 1.5 percent disadvantage. If that player has a huge bankroll and starts with a minimum bet, he might be able to make a true “Martingale” betting method work for days, weeks, even months – who knows?

Sooner or later, however, a vicious and prolonged losing streak will come along which will take the gambler past his ability to make the next bet – either because his bankroll has been severely depleted, or because he doesn’t have the nerve to make the next bet.

Example: Say his minimum starting bet is $5.00 – and he encounters a losing streak of 15 in a row. Here are the required bets for doubling up on each loss:

5 – 10 – 20 – 40 -80 – 160 – 320 – 640 – 1280 – 2560 – 5120 – 10,240 – 20,480 – 40,960 – 81,920

. . . and bet number 16 would call for $163,840 – just to get back his original $5.00 bet and end up with a paltry $5.00 in profit!!

The insanity of it is obvious.

In horse race betting, an extended losing streak of 15 races is not that rare for win-betting – particularly if you’re going after higher paying horses.

Now, if you played only select 4-5, 1-1, and 6-5 types to approximate the even money roulette bets, a 15 race streak might never happen. Even a 10 race losing streak would be extremely rare – but, my gosh, after chasing a 10 race losing streak down while doubling up just to get back a little profit on your original bet?

Your ROI would be pitiful!

A player could, however, scale way back from the “doubling up” betting mode. Variations on the following have been put forth before – the idea is this:

Find a horse bet that has a good winning percentage – say 35% or higher. Flat bet it until an average length losing streak has been encountered – say 5 races – and only then start the betting progression. You then run the progression until you have “cleared” the series – i.e. recovered losses and gained a profit.

But those visions keep coming back – of the Martingale maniac sweating blood as he steps up to make his next “bridge jumper” sized bet – trying only to just GET BACK TO EVEN!

As a safety factor, a winning (hit / strike rate) percentage that exceeds 40% (even 50%) is better. You should feel confident that this percentage is solid before undertaking the kind of progression outlined below.

That pretty much limits the approach to place, and show betting.

Let’s say you have a good handicapping method that hits 32% winners at an average $7.60 mutuel. You’re carrying a great ROI of around +21%.

That same horse betting might be expected to hit win or place (pay to place) about 60% of the time. The place bet would pay maybe $3.80 on average. Here your ROI would be figured this way: 60 winning bets in 100 pay you $3.80 – so $228 returned on $200 bet = +14% ROI.

No great bragging rights there – but a bettor could apply a progression that would likely pump up that ROI enough that he could grind out a pretty good horse race betting income – if he cared to do so . . .

Here’s how:
Let’s assume that with a 60% winning race average, losing streaks of 2 and 3 would be fairly common – streaks of 4 and 5 would occur only occasionally – and losing streaks of 6 or more would be rare.

The race bettor would start his progression only after 3 consecutive losses had been incurred. Then, it would be very unlikely that he would encounter another 4 losses in succession (i.e. 7 straight losses).

Since most wins (recoveries in the betting progression) will happen soon after starting the progression series – we can escalate our bet series rapidly at first, and begin to taper back only after we know we’re in one of those “blue moon” losing streaks of more than 8 races – if that occurs.

This could be the betting progression that would begin after the third loss:

2 units, 4 units, 6 units, 8 units, 9 units, 10 units, 11units, 12 units.

- When you hit the second payoff anywhere in the series – you drop back one.
- Then you drop back one on each win.
- If you miss again before “clearing” the series – you start back up the series from that point.

When you “clear” the series – that is you are profitable by a minimum of three units (the accumulated loss at the point when the series began), you go back to one unit betting.

The following is an example place bet series:

Lets assume a base betting unit of $20.00

Bet #1 = 1 unit / win pays $3.60
Bet #2 = 1 unit / win pays $4.20
Bet #3 = 1 unit / loss
Bet #4 = 1 unit / loss (remember we are flat betting until 3

losses in a row)
Bet #5 = 1 unit / loss
Bet #6 = 2 units / loss (progression has begun here)
Bet #7 = 4 units / win pays $3.00
Bet #8 = 6 units / win pays $3.00
Bet #9 = 4 units / win pays $3.80
Bet #10 = 1 unit / win pays $5.00

This is 6 wins in 10 plays , 60%, which is our projection. The average payoff was $3.76 – which is slightly below the $3.80 projection.

Flat betting – that series would have had this outcome:
- 10 x $20.00 = $200.00 total race bets
- back out were returns of: $36.00, $42.00, $30.00, $30.00, $38.00 and $50 for a total of $226.00
- a net of $26.00
- ROI = +13%

With the progression applied, results were:
- bet 23 units = $460.00 total race bets
- back out were returns of: $36.00, $42.00, $120.00, $180.00, $152.00 and $50 for a total of $580.00
- a net of $120.00
- ROI = + 26%

You might ask, “Why play this place progression and put more of my bankroll at risk when I could just play the horses to win – flat bet a little more and rake in a consistent +21% ROI?”

Good question.

We’re not particularly recommending this method of play – it is riskier. Only a few of you might be tempted to give it a whirl.

If the bet series ran out in a “blue moon” negative streak, the player would stand to lose:

- 2 units, 4 units, 6 units,8 units, 9 units, 10 units, 11units, 12 units – or 62 units. At $20.00 this would be $1,240.00

For that increased risk, the horse race bettor would likely get a solid increase in bottom line ROI long-term (it happened to double in the example given above) – and he would spread money into the place pool – thus helping protect his win mutuels from the effect of his own wagers.

This would then also be another addition to the “portfolio.”

Again – running this kind of horse betting progression carries a higher risk – we don’t recommend it for everyone.

For those of you who might be interested – the caveat is:

You must be very sure of the consistency of your horse betting hit percentage. This kind of confidence is misplaced if you don’t have actual betting results for say, at least five hundred horse races!

For more on successful betting approaches, see: horse betting

By: Gary Everett

About the Author:

There are many betting strategies used by players try to win money from casinos. Among the most popular and simplest strategy is called Martingale technique. Although it is the simplest strategy use by most gamblers, it is one of the most dangerous methods that may causes you lose all you money fast if the game’s draw results are not the outcomes you projected. Let find look into the details of Martingale technique and see how it will help in your betting as well as risking your money.

Martingale technique is a betting strategy that asks you to double your bet every time you lose. The theory goes in this way: In any casino game, it is very common to have runs of 5, 6 or even 20 consecutive outcomes of high or low, even or odd, black or red; but it will finally result in the other side of outcome, so if you continue double your bet, you will eventually recoup your loses and win at least one chip extra when the outcome result in the field you bet on. For example, you are playing on Roulette and bet on Black with $10, it turns out to be Red, you lose, you continue to bet on Black but this time the betting amount is $20. It turns out to be Red again, you bet again on Black with $40. And, the games go on if you continue to lose, you double up with $80, $160, $320, $640…until the outcome turns to be Black, you win. Once you win you will cover you loses and win $10.

Theoretically Martingale technique is a perfect betting strategy that ensure you will win if you have sufficient money to double up the betting amount until you win. But, in true life this is the case because casinos have implemented a few game rules to protect themselves from rich players who have money to play using Martingale technique. One of the rules is maximum limit that you can bet on a field. If a player using Martingale technique to place his/her bet and if he/she continue lose and double up the betting amount, eventually maximum limit will be reached and the player can double his/her bet amount anymore. This is how casinos stopped players to continue winning with Martingale technique.

Playing with Martingale technique can be very dangerous because it was wipe you out very fast if the outcomes of the draw result always put you in the lose side and cause you hit the maximum limit where you can’t double up your betting anymore. For example you bet on Roulette table which has minimum limit of $1 and maximum limit of $300. You start bet on Red with $1 and double up to $2, $4, $8, $16, $32, $64, $128…today you have a very bad luck, the Black continue to come out consecutively for 8 times, but you believe this round (the 9th round) should be Red so you bet with $256 on Red. You are praying and hoping the outcome to be Red because you know that if this round still results in Black, you can’t double up your betting any more because of the table limit. Unless you are lucky this round else you will lose. Here is where the Martingale technique broken because you can’t bet with $512 on Red even you have money.

You will face a high risk of losing money using Martingale technique if you solely play with your luck. But it can work well if you use it with a few good betting strategies that you may learn from e-books or articles published by casino pros.

By: Chris Wiseman

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