In this article you’ll learn something you ever wanted to know (and then some!) about how to make smart statistical bets based on how well you understand and interpret information.

And that’s what it’s going to take to win.

Are you a winner? You only need a few things in order to get started: a small stake to begin your initial investment and a willingness to learn. But the number one thing you need to do in order to be successful at betting is this: you need to separate your emotions from your intellect.

We are emotional people and that means that sometimes it’s easy to become anxious about a bet. But statistics is not about emotion. You won’t find emotional quotient in any good odds calculation. While your gut feeling does come into play from time to time, you shouldn’t consider emotions as part of your decision-making. You should use facts, numbers, and cold, hard intellect. That’s going to be the key to an increase in winnings.

You’re not going to win every bet but the more information you take in and the better you become at interpreting it, the more likely you’ll be at knowing whether or not you should place the bet, and for how much, etc.

That’s what statistical betting is all about. It relies on the fact that many people have already done the research to uncover the potential wins and losses on a particular event. Rather than requiring you to do all that work again, statistical betting takes the odds that the bookies offers and interprets it so you can uncover potential gold mines.

By: Robert Thatcher

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A scorecast is a football bet where you attempt to predict the first goal scorer and the correct score. For example in a match involving Manchester United, you could have Giggs to score first and correct score of 3-1.

Scorecasts are priced up separately. The novice bettor might think that if Giggs is 9/1 to score first goal and 3-1 correct score is 15/1 then the odds would be somewhere in the region of 135/1. This seems intuitive but is wrong. The true price on Giggs and 3-1 would be about 70/1. Still a big price but not as good as the double on both bets.

First goal scorer and correct score are dependent markets. With Giggs scoring first, it eliminates the possibility of the other team winning 1-0. An easier way to think about dependent market is to think of correct scores and win-draw-win market. Would a bookmaker ever take a double on 3-1 and Man U winning? No, 3-1 automatically means that Man U have won so no bookmaker would take that bet.

Scorecasts are best off thought of as fun lottery bets. Bookies love them because the theoretical payout is low. They also win on all 0-0 games and games where unexpected goal scorers score first. They will take a hit every so often when a popular scorecast comes in but in the long run its a very profitable market.

The good thing about bookies loving the market so much is that they offer inducements to play them. The most high profile one is Paddy Power’s money back specials. If, X scores the last goal in the game then Paddy Power will refund all losing scorecasts on the market. This still doesn’t make the bets good value but for the recreational punter this is a nice bonus.

By: Ben King

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